Will the Tasmanian election put an end to the island’s parliamentary chaos?
While the electorate will be hoping for a more stable result, it’s again unlikely either major party will be given a majority
The last Tasmanian state election, in March 2024, produced a very unstable situation – not just a hung parliament, but a parliament where no party was close to a majority. So the state returning to the polls on 19 July shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
While the parties will be hoping for a more enduring result, it’s again unlikely either major party will be given a majority.
A YouGov poll published on 30 June gave Labor 34% of the vote with the Liberals on 31%, Greens on 13% and other parties and independents on 22%. That outcome would represent a five-point improvement for Labor compared with the 2024 election, and would probably make it the largest party in parliament, but still without an overall majority.
Tasmania’s lower house is elected using the proportional Hare-Clark system. There are five electorates, each with seven members. Parties run up to seven candidates in each electorate, with candidates grouped by party.
The order of the candidates’ names is randomised on different ballot papers, rather than the parties deciding on the order. This produces competition between candidates in the same party, and on occasion, sitting MPs lose their seats to a member of their own party. Parties usually win a share of seats that is close to their share of the overall vote.
The 2024 election produced a parliament of 14 Liberals, 10 Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) members and three independent MPs. The three JLN members were largely unheard of and had not worked together before, and it was unclear what they wanted to achieve by agreeing to support the government.
With 18 MPs needed for a majority in the parliament, the incumbent Liberal government continued in office after signing deals with the JLN and another member, but found it hard to work with them.
The JLN members also struggled to work as a bloc, with Lambie sometimes intervening from her federal office. The JLN members split in late 2024, with Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland leaving the party and continuing to support the government, while Andrew Jenner continued as a JLN member while not supporting the government.
The Liberal government has continued to have trouble with the crossbench since this split. A motion of no confidence forced the deputy premier, Michael Ferguson, to resign from the ministry after losing the support of a key independent. By early 2025, it was clear that there were likely to be enough votes on the crossbench to pass a motion of no confidence if supported by Labor. But for some time Labor was reluctant to give the government the nudge it needed to collapse.
This changed in May, after Labor’s resounding victory in the federal election and in Tasmania’s upper house elections. The Labor opposition moved a motion of no confidence, which passed and thus triggered a the state election.
The JLN will not be contesting this time, creating a vacuum for voters who don’t like the Liberal government but don’t want to vote for Labor or the Greens. The National party will be hoping to fill that gap, but the position of the Nationals in a post-election negotiation is unclear, with two of the ex-JLN members who found themselves on opposing sides of that party’s split now both running for the Nationals.
Support for the major parties remains very low in Tasmania, which is likely to result in another hung parliament with a large crossbench. The major parties have struggled to share power and both are reluctant to do deals. Labor and the Greens have a particularly difficult relationship, which means Labor will be reluctant to take government if it would mean relying on the Greens for a majority.
For Labor, the best-case scenario is probably a hung parliament where they have the choice of working with the Greens or other crossbenchers to form government and pass legislation.
There is a history in Tasmania of Labor-Liberal swing voters moving towards whichever major party has the best chance of governing without requiring crossbench support. Those voters have favoured the Liberals in recent elections, but Labor will be hoping to gain them this time.