The question for the NSW Liberals after the Kiama drubbing is: can anyone do better than Mark Speakman?
Kellie Sloane has ruled out moving a spill and James Griffin isn’t eager. Alister Henskens is thought to lack the numbers. So, for now, the leader might be safe
Byelections are usually a referendum on the government. But Saturday’s Kiama byelection – and the poor performance of the New South Wales Liberals – has deepened angst within the opposition about Mark Speakman’s leadership.
In Kiama, Labor increased its primary vote – a feat in itself in a byelection – and looks likely to achieve an impressive swing on a two-party-preferred basis. Labor’s Katelin McInerney is on track for a thumping 60% to 40% two-party-preferred victory over the Liberal candidate Serena Copley.
On Sunday, Speakman defended the decision to contest the byelection, saying: “We knew we were the underdogs but we were determined to give the people of Kiama a choice.”
The Liberal leader also pointed to the extraordinary factors in the Kiama byelection. It was triggered by the resignation of Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward, who was convicted of rape in July.
Ward had once enjoyed a huge personal following. He won the safe Labor seat in 2011 for the Liberals and then held it as an independent in 2023, despite sexual assault charges having been laid.
The question for the Liberal party room when it meets on Tuesday is: can anyone do better than Speakman?
We are midway through Minns’ first term. The premier often dons a hard hat or hi-vis for the cameras as he announces measures to increase housing supply (the top issue in NSW) or cuts ribbons at transport projects (often started by the previous Coalition government).
Cost-of-living pressures are moderating, and Minns’ boost to public sector wages has calmed the industrial relations wars.
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The tabloid media and commercial radio are lapping up the attention they get from Minns – and the symbiotic relationship is delivering Labor relatively benign coverage.
Speakman has tried to point out that a press release isn’t a building – but unfortunately, for him, it’s too early to say whether Minns’ plans will be converted into new homes.
The trains are running again after a spate of industrial action, albeit with delays, and the only obvious area where cracks are emerging is in the health system. So, Minns is riding high.
If the Kiama result is repeated at the NSW general election in March 2027, the Coalition could lose another 12 to 14 seats in the lower house, reducing it to less than a third of the NSW parliament.
A loss of that magnitude would put the party in a dire position, particularly after the Liberals’ wipeout in the 2025 federal election. It could put a return to power out of reach for two or more terms.
So it’s no wonder Speakman’s troops are restless.
Speakman as Liberal leader is competent, methodical and hardworking. The former barrister is not a show pony, and if his eye for detail sometimes rankles with his colleagues, they also acknowledge he is smart, principled and a genuinely nice guy.
But Speakman’s problem is selling the message and cutting through to media more interested in gangland killings and celebrity divorces than state politics.
At press conferences, Speakman is often upstaged by his colleagues, who deliver their lines with more punch and clarity. When you’re reduced to 10 seconds at the end of a media story on the latest Minns announcement, it has to be a killer grab.
But will someone make a move against Speakman on Tuesday?
The moderates, Speakman’s faction, have the numbers in NSW, and lay claim to the leadership, often with the support of the centre right, unless there is a real star, such as the former premier Dominic Perrottet, waiting in the wings.
On Sunday, there was no real appetite for an immediate spill, and Speakman made it clear he was not going anywhere. “Absolutely not,” he said when asked if he would resign.
Kellie Sloane, the shadow health spokesperson and member for Vaucluse, has ruled out moving a spill, and James Griffin, the shadow environment spokesperson and member for Manly, is also not keen.
If there were to be an imminent challenge, it would probably come from the right faction, as a way of testing the waters or stirring the pot. Its most ambitious member, the shadow attorney general, Alister Henskens, is said to lack the numbers to clinch the leadership.
So, for now, the unrest might fizzle.
The NSW Liberals like to distance themselves from their Canberra colleagues, but the fight over the heart and soul of the Liberal party in Canberra is not helping at the state level.
“That public airing of differences does not help,” Speakman said on Sunday. “The Liberal party has to show itself as united, addressing the concerns of modern Australia. We are always the party of aspiration, of private enterprise and personal responsibility.”
The teal independent Kate Dezarnaulds won 10.3% of the primary vote in Kiama, improving on her result in the last federal election. Other independents and single-issue parties picked up another 10% of the primary vote on Saturday.
Those results suggest voters remain unhappy with the major parties.
Minns himself was quick to note on Sunday that Labor could have lost a byelection elsewhere in NSW this weekend. But if the ALP continues its winning ways, the premier is beginning to look like he could emulate the record of party legend Bob Carr, who survived more than a decade in office.
Anne Davies is Guardian Australia’s NSW state correspondent