Pressure mounts on Queensland with State of Origin history on NSW’s side | Jack Snape

The Maroons have never won two matches on the road to turn around an Origin series and the Blues hold all the cards ahead of Game 2 in Perth

Queensland’s State of Origin aspirations will evaporate on a wet Australian rules oval in Perth on Wednesday if most commentators and analysts and even some apprehensive Maroons fans are to be believed. The heavily-favoured Blues can wrap up the series in Game 2 following their straightforward 18-6 victory in the opener in Brisbane three weeks ago.

In that match the southerners were physically dominant, dictating the contest with a methodical ruthlessness that gave the impression they still had another gear. The Maroons’ only try was direct from a Blues handling error, and Queensland’s lack of attacking potency prompted long nights of introspection and review for Billy Slater and his staff.

So dire were their findings, they decided to abandon the state’s famed “pick and stick” philosophy. Captain and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans was jettisoned – the first mid-series axing of a Maroons captain since Trevor Gillmeister in 1996 – highlighting the desperation of the proud rugby league state.

Slater, having quickly won two shields as a coach but now facing back-to-back series defeats, says the pressure is a reminder of what’s at stake, “because it means so much to the people of our states”. But a day out from the series-defining second game, the former fullback stopped short of acknowledging any heightened expectation. “There was pressure in grand finals, there was pressure in State of Origin games, and there still is,” he said. “And the day there’s no pressure, I’ll be a bit worried.”

However Slater wants to spin it, a New South Wales victory on Wednesday – when up to 35mm of rain is expected – would make it four successive wins, the state’s longest streak in the rugby league showpiece since 1997. And whether it’s after this game or the next, history suggests the shield is likely to stay with the Blues, given Queensland have never won two matches away to win a series.

The first time the teams played at Optus Stadium, the Blues won 38-6 in 2019. The last time, the Blues won 44-12 to level the 2022 series. “What a great opportunity, right?” Slater said. “It’s been a couple of poor performances the last time Queensland have played here, and we haven’t won a series on the road since being one-nil down.”

The last time Origin was in Perth, Nathan Cleary scored twice and his then-Panthers teammate Jarome Luai crossed himself. The pair have been reunited in Blues camp again this week after a calf injury to Mitch Moses. Luai – now with Wests Tigers but with more than a decade playing alongside Cleary – was flown in following Moses’ mishap to rejoin a squad he helped to a 2024 series victory.

Cleary said it has felt “weird” playing against his long-time halves partner in the NRL this season, but this week reminded him of their connection. “It felt like being back at home, playing alongside him,” the No 7 said.

Injury has also robbed NSW of middle Mitch Barnett, resulting in the elevation of Stefano Utoikamanu. The Storm prop already has Origin experience and recorded a season-best 146 running metres in 43 minutes in his last match for the NRL favourites two weeks ago. Most don’t believe Utoikamanu is a major downgrade, another minor change to a settled outfit.

The Maroons look radically different however, with forwards Kurt Capewell and Corey Horsburgh, as well as 32-year-old utility Kurt Mann – Queensland’s second-oldest Origin debutant behind the late Arthur Beetson – brought in and expected to challenge the imperious Blues’ pack, led by captain Isaah Yeo and Broncos middle Payne Haas.

So it’s concern for camp Queensland, and confidence among the Blues: the State of Origin status quo. Apart from the period of the Maroons’ dominance in the 2000s and 2010s, the Queenslanders have spent much of the Origin era as outsiders. They may be preparing for this crucial clash in AFL-loving Western Australia, but spiritually the Maroons are in their natural habitat.

Tuesday’s press conference highlighted another motivation. Former Manly prop – and Blues enforcer – Aaron Woods had described Slater as a “grub” in the wake of the axing of Cherry-Evans, Woods’ former teammate. Slater, when asked to respond on Tuesday, said people who “degrade someone personally” don’t deserve a place in the media, as the crowd in Perth at the pre-match press conference began to applaud.

“I’m not done yet,” Slater warned. “You don’t know what people are going through, and although I might be able to handle it, the next person mightn’t be. Maybe our last coach didn’t,” Slater said, referencing Paul Green, who died in 2022 and whose brain was affected by chronic traumatic encephalopathy. “I believe the character of a person is judged more on what they say about people and how they treat people than what an individual says to create attention about someone.”

Munster, the once-wayward playmaker who Slater has chosen as his new captain, said seeing his coach – and a Maroons legend – targeted in the media “does hurt a little bit” and it was now up to the players on Wednesday. “I feel like we’re putting pressure on him – he probably might not say that, but me personally – we need to stand up for him.”