The right thing for rugby league lovers? Devil in the detail as NRL subtly slides away from free-to-air TV | Jack Snape
The full implications of the $5.3bn broadcast deal will not be felt immediately but fans will soon come to realise the game is creeping behind a paywall
It is the slow creep that will define the next NRL broadcast era, the boiling of the frog. And the frog – sorry to say – is you. The $5.3bn sum of the new NRL broadcast deal signed this month stole the headlines, but from the game something else is slowly being taken.
The full implications will not be felt immediately for a deal whose devil is in the detail. But before long, fans will come to realise their team is on free-to-air television less and less frequently. And they will look back to this moment, when the Albanese government – despite having the power to resist the pull of the paywall – stood and watched.
The boiling of the frog is, rather than a recipe, a metaphor for incremental changes that go unnoticed. Like a creature in a pot that is heating slowly, at some point the temperature becomes too much.
Four of eight NRL games next week will be on free-to-air TV – half the entire round – showcasing the Bulldogs, Rabbitohs and Cowboys jostling for places in the top eight as the season counts down. This arrangement is part of the current broadcast deal signed in 2015 and extended in 2021.
When the 20th NRL team joins to make 10-match rounds as soon as 2029, however, those without pay TV will enjoy live access to just three. From 50% to 30% in the blink of an eye: more than a trim, it’s a broadcasting buzzcut.
No wonder it was the first thing Foxtel pointed out, when the much-vaunted deal covering the seven-year period starting in 2028 was announced earlier this month. “More exclusive live NRL matches as the league expands – increasing from five matches in full rounds to seven matches [when the 20th team enters],” the company’s statement read.
Under the current deal, Nine typically shows three matches per full round, with the remainder exclusive to Foxtel. In the final month of the season that climbs to four matches, thus starting next week there will be live NRL on free-to-air each day from Thursday to Sunday.
In 2017, an NRL spokesperson told the Sydney Morning Herald the organisation’s “objective will always be to ensure the game is available to as broad an audience as possible” and having matches on free-to-air on all four days over the final five rounds “will allow more people to watch the NRL premiership”.
The sentiment at head office, however, appears to have shifted. This month’s announcement was hailed as a win for rugby league, securing its place at the summit of Australian sport, because its value eclipsed the AFL’s $4.5bn arrangement struck in 2022.
Under the published terms of the new deal Nine will pay $145m in cash each year for its three NRL games per round (as well as finals and State of Origin), only a modest bump on its $115m fee under the current arrangements.
The uplift in value from 2028 comes from Foxtel, who are tipping in roughly half a billion dollars annually, close to double what they currently pay, for exclusive rights to the ever-growing remainder not shown on Nine. And like that, Peter V’landys secured his number.
The subtle slide away from free-to-air towards pay TV is amplified by the changes to NRLW coverage. The widely-lauded growth of the women’s game has been underpinned by its exposure on Nine, which currently broadcasts each of the competition’s matches on either its main or secondary channels, as well as on streaming service 9Now.
Under the new arrangements, half of NRLW regular season matches will be exclusively live on Foxtel. Nine’s quota will be down to “33 live NRLW weekly games”, or three matches per week in this year’s 11-match season. But, again, this is a competition where expansion is imminent. More games, either by extending the season or increasing the number of teams, will prove fodder for only Foxtel.
The new deal reflects a “diminution” – to borrow the government’s language – of live matches on free-to-air of both NRL and NRLW. In 2022, as the AFL came close to signing its $4.5bn TV deal, then communications minister Michelle Rowland warned those negotiating “to ensure there is no diminution in the availability of AFL matches on free-to-air television under the new deal”. It was a veiled threat under anti-siphoning laws which, if enforced, prevent “culturally significant” sport going behind a paywall.
The office of the new minister, Anika Wells – who is also minister for sport – was offered the chance to comment on the NRL negotiations in June, as the final pitches to V’Landys were being made by executives at Nine and Foxtel. “Rugby league fans expect their sport to be freely available to watch and enjoy,” a spokesperson said at the time. “I expect the NRL and broadcasters to do the right thing for rugby league lovers.”
Within weeks the deal had been signed, the diminution locked in. Those “rugby league lovers” are now even more beholden to Foxtel and the pricing strategy overseen by UK-based owner Dazn. V’landys said at the announcement of the deal “the price point will be protected”, while Foxtel’s chief executive, Patrick Delany, promised “we’re completely aligned in making sure it’s affordable”.
What happened next? The price of Foxtel Plus – the basic pay TV offering before a sport package can be added – increased by $5 per month. When Kayo was introduced as a lean sport streaming alternative in 2018, it cost $25 per month to watch two simultaneous streams. In February, the equivalent product increased from $40 to $46 per month, following another $5 bump the previous year. A single-stream option was introduced in 2024, and now costs $30.
Of course, many impatient or discerning sports fans already prefer the coverage offered by subscription providers and are happy to pay for the privilege. For them, any increase in the share of their favourite sport that is behind a paywall is moot. Others, however, worry about the frog.