Shell oil trading profits soar amid Iran war but Qatar strikes hit gas output

. UK edition

The Shell logo at a petrol station in London
Shell’s trading windfall is expected to be particularly high in its renewable energy division. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Earnings at renewable energy division expected to soar to between $200m and $700m in first quarter

Shell is expected to report “significantly higher” profits from its trading desks in the first quarter of this year after weeks of market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis.

The surge in energy commodity markets over recent weeks is expected to drive up trading results at Shell’s chemicals and products unit, which includes its main oil trading desk.

The global oil price has climbed from about $61 a barrel in January to highs of $119 at the end of March, including some of the biggest daily price moves on record, owing to major disruptions to flows of oil and gas through the strait of Hormuz.

The market volatility provides an opportunity for traders to make large profits, but also presents a risk of heavy losses.

In addition to Shell’s oil trading windfall, it is also expected to report higher trading profits from its renewable energy division. Earnings are expected to soar to between $200m (£149m) and $700m in the first quarter, from about $100m in the final quarter of last year, it predicted in a trading update on Wednesday.

However, Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer warned investors to expect lower gas production for the first quarter, compared with the final quarter last year, because of the impact of the Middle East conflict on its assets in Qatar.

Iran retaliated to US-Israeli aggression by launching a volley of strikes against key energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in March, in addition to throttling energy trade through the strait of Hormuz, before the ceasefire agreement on Tuesday night.

These attacks included a strike that damaged Shell’s assets at the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar. The company expects its gas production to fall by about 5% to between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, compared with 948,000 in the fourth quarter.

The loss of Qatari production, combined with the impact of Cyclone Narelle on Shell’s Australian production, will be partly offset by the ramp-up of production from its LNG Canada venture.

Oil plunged below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, although market prices remain more than 50% higher than last year. Iran’s government has promised that the strait of Hormuz will temporarily reopen during this period to allow oil and fuel tankers into the global market.

Shell’s boss, Wael Sawan, predicted last month that Europe could face a shortage of energy and fuel in April unless the strait reopened. He told an industry conference in the US that the company was working with governments to help them address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in Asian countries.

“South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to south-east Asia, north-east Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said.

The US oil company Exxon Mobil said on Wednesday that it had lost 6% of its global production in the first quarter of 2026 because of the Iran war.