The world is being driven to the brink by thugs and dictators, but there is a route to a brighter future | Simon Tisdall
It’s no surprise some analysts say we are already in the midst of the third world war, but ordinary people have more power than we think, says Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall
Don’t look up! The world is a mess. The sky could fall in any day. Unending wars, expanding humanitarian crises, rising authoritarianism, dysfunctional democracies, rampant racial and religious extremism, and unchecked lawlessness cast a dark cloud as the west’s new political year begins. Set all that against a backdrop of staggering global economic inequality, corporate and individual greed, irresponsible government indebtedness, dangerous AI gambles, climate breakdown and proliferating nuclear weapons, and a truly apocalyptic global outlook begins to take shape. It’s enough to make anyone shut their eyes, cover their ears and utter a Munch-like scream. And it’s only getting worse.
Democratic leaders who promise a better, safer, more optimistic future – what Britain’s freshly arrived prime minister, Andy Burnham, calls a “new era of possibility” – cannot escape this wider international context. Last week’s global bond market upheaval, sparked by external factors, left Burnham’s cash-strapped government struggling with sharply increased borrowing costs before he barely got started. The fact he chose Ukraine for his first overseas trip, while symbolically important, highlighted another grim reality. As a lead opponent of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, Britain now finds itself in a de facto state of war with Russia – and facing attack. Argentina, too, is eyeing UK defence vulnerabilities. These are not the sort of possibilities Burnham envisaged.
Little wonder some analysts believe a third world war has already begun. Those who say this is over-dramatic should consider the following snapshots of the state of the world in 2026. From Kyiv to Khorramshahr, Kordofan and Kachin, conflicts flare and subside but never seem to end. All-out Russian aggression in Ukraine, now mostly comprising daily attempts to murder and terrorise civilians, is into its fifth year. Trump has lost his Iran bet, but keeps killing and bombing with no end in sight. In southern Sudan, appalling atrocities go unchecked. In Myanmar, a people’s war against a brutal junta rages on. Israel’s response to the 2023 massacres has triggered an ongoing regional war embroiling Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Iran and the Gulf states. Worldwide, record numbers of people are displaced by conflict.
Increasingly interconnected, these wars threaten to merge into one uncontrollable global conflagration. The alliance system, key pillar of the post-1945 order, is eating itself. Donald Trump taunts Europe and Nato with tariffs, troop withdrawals, barbs and insults at a time of acute vulnerability. Canada and the US are at daggers drawn as the White House bully fatuously threatens Venezuela – or Greenland-style annexation. China aids North Korea, which also aids Russia, which aids Iran, which aids Hezbollah and the Houthis. In Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, China looms menacingly as partnerships with Washington fray. In Taiwan, fears of invasion grow, aggravated by Trump’s obsequious appeasing of Xi Jinping.
Everywhere you look, humanitarian crises caused by war, the climate crisis or natural disasters are producing chaotic mass migrations, malnutrition and disease. Increasingly, the suffering overwhelms a UN-led aid system crippled by US and UK funding cuts. In the fertile West Bank, 900,000 Palestinians, their homes and farms besieged by settler extremists, are now food insecure, the World Food Programme says. In Somalia, millions go hungry amid record drought and predicted El Niño-related flooding. Colombia and Afghanistan face similar perils. Humanitarian and human rights outrages take individual form, too. In Hong Kong, for example, an ailing Jimmy Lai, brave champion of free speech, languishes in 23-hour-a-day solitary confinement, a tortured casualty of Chinese communism’s hatred of democracy and civil rights.
Skittish bond markets may be the least of the world’s economic and financial problems. Is a crash coming, reminiscent of 2008, only worse? The signs are ominous. The US just notched up a record $40tn in national debt. France, the UK, Japan and others are deep in the red, too. Unmanageable current-account deficits, rising inflation and the huge, draining diversion of investment into bloated AI tech companies all point to what market analysts cutely call a “disorderly correction”. By some estimates, the Nvidia chip-maker, plus Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, are “worth” about 23% of the entire US stock market. Meanwhile, unaffordable northern-hemisphere energy and food prices loom this winter, exacerbated by Trump’s Middle East forever folly. In the worst case, all this could translate into global recession and yet more political instability. It’s a gigantic bubble waiting to burst.
The existential hazards posed by the climate crisis and global heating should require scant elaboration after the terrifying Nepal-Tibet flood disaster. Similarly inimical to life on Earth, in an avoidable, human-made way, is the rapid proliferation of nuclear weapons, including so-called “battlefield” or tactical nukes that are more likely to be used in war zones such as Ukraine or Iran. All nine nuclear weapons states are expanding or modernising their arsenals, with China in the lead. Countries such as South Korea and Saudi Arabia weigh their nuclear options. And now this atomic arms race is expanding into space. There really seems no limit to humanity’s relentless, doom-laden drive towards self-destruction.
The fundamental values of post-Enlightenment liberal societies are everywhere under siege. The rule of law is routinely flouted. While Putin and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu ignore war-crimes arrest warrants, Trump and his unctuous lickspittle, Marco Rubio, actively work to destroy the international criminal court. Across Europe, far-right racists, loons and bigots make political advances, seen again this weekend in the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt. Next year, France will approach its own fateful national reckoning. In the US, Trump, enabled by a supine majority in Congress and dishonourable supreme court justices, is constructing a “constitutional dictatorship” to subvert future elections, symbolised by a gross, 250ft-tall “Arc de Trump”. Let alarm bells ring: US democracy and the entire western democratic tradition are in dire peril.
What is to be done? Is any consolation to be had? First, key pillars of the post-1945 order, though badly battered, are still just about intact. The UN and most of its agencies, the international court of justice and collaborative, multinational western democratic alliances such as the EU, Nato and the G7 have so far survived the current tumult. Second, the age of tyrants is nearing an end. These angry old men are mostly headed for nursing homes, jail or the grave. May their legacies of fear and hate die with them. Last, younger generations in many “middle power” and developing countries, exemplified by India’s Cockroach youth protest movement, are making plain their revulsion and rejection of the way the world is now. Like Burnham, they believe passionately in the power of possibility and change.
The future lies not in the hands of political thugs and killers, of dictators and megalomaniacs, but in the hands of ordinary people everywhere. It depends on millions upon millions of individual daily acts of kindness, selflessness, faith and courage. So don’t lose heart. Keep your eyes open. Unblock your ears. And don’t look down!
Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator