New global panel aims to accelerate move away from fossil fuels

Scientists and economists will help countries develop plans to reduce dependence on oil, gas and coal

A panel of global experts has been launched to provide scientific input for countries that want to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and manage the growing risks of high oil prices, geopolitical conflict and extreme weather damage.

The initiative was announced on the opening day of a groundbreaking climate action meeting in Santa Marta, where the Colombian hosts set out a draft roadmap for their own national energy transition.

It marked a high-ambition start to the first global conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels. The event, from 24-29 April, has brought together more than 50 nations, dozens of subnational governments and an estimated 2,800 civil society representatives in a “coalition of the willing” aimed at reinvigorating international efforts to reduce planet-heating emissions from oil, gas and coal.

The new science panel for global energy transition is intended to add intellectual weight to those efforts. Experts in climate, economics and technology will offer advice to policymakers looking to create roadmaps out of the fossil fuel era.

Based partly on the model of the UK’s climate change committee, it includes national and sector-level milestones for eliminating fossil fuels in line with scenarios that return global heating to 1.5C by the end of the century.

The panel will be chaired by Vera Songwe, the Cameroonian co-chair of the High Level Expert Panel on Climate Finance; Ottmar Edenhofer, the German director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and Gilberto M Jannuzzi, a Brazilian professor of energy systems at Universidade Estadual de Campinas.

Jannuzzi said there was still time to bring about an energy transition. “Technically, there is no problem. The problem is how to disseminate the information and secure the financing,” he said.

The panel’s formation follows calls by the president of Cop30 in Belém to establish roadmaps for accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and deforestation.

“We encourage governments and institutions to draw on the panel’s analyses, policy briefs and country-level engagement to strengthen nationally determined contributions, inform sectoral strategies and accelerate implementation of just and orderly energy transitions across different national contexts,” André Aranha Corrêa do Lago said.

The Colombian and Dutch hosts of the Santa Marta meeting have also expressed support for the initiative, which has been convened by Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Carlos Nobre of the University of São Paulo.

Rockström said the presence of a third of the world’s countries at Santa Marta would help keep the transition from fossil fuels on the global agenda and demonstrate how it can be achieved. “These are solvable problems that can create better futures for local communities,” he said. “The science panel can play a unique role in providing updates on what needs to happen year by year.”

The 54 countries that are attending the fast track transition conference include major fossil fuel producers such as Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Angola, for whom giving up a major source of income will be challenging.

Those challenges, and their possible solutions, were outlined in the new draft roadmap for Colombia, which gets about half of its export revenues from coal. Drawn up by global experts with Colombian officials, the plan says that a rapid switch to cheaper and more efficient renewables would bring long-term benefits to energy security, health, the climate and the economy.

Reducing fossil fuel use by 90% by 2050 would allow energy demand to continue growing while generating direct economic benefits estimated at $280bn over the next 24 years, the roadmap calculates. “Considerable upfront investment is needed to achieve this transition, but by the early 2040s, this delivers annual net savings to the Colombian economy,” the plan states.

The authors stressed this outline needs to be debated and refined, but they hoped it could help to inform the national debate.

“We are really excited about the roadmap,” said Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. “It shows that it is cost effective to phase out petrol and diesel. And also very cost effective to build renewables. And now we all appreciate the importance of energy security.”

He said he hoped other countries would follow suit and develop their own roadmaps and climate councils. “We want to work with countries to build internal capacity to do it themselves because they understand the opportunities, roadblocks and political sensibilities within their countries.”