National security plans must adapt to avoid ‘new world disorder’, says UN climate chief

Simon Stiell tells audience in Cop31 host nation Turkey that climate extremes are fuelling famine, displacement and war

National security strategies that fail to take account of the climate crisis are “dangerously narrow”, and will leave countries open to “a new world disorder” threatening famine and conflict, the UN’s climate chief has warned.

The warnings came as a draft of a key agenda for the Cop31 climate conference omitted to mention fossil fuels, and skewed instead to the interests of the Turkish hosts, such as waste management and tourism.

Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said: “Security is the word on most leaders’ lips, yet many cling to a definition that is dangerously narrow. For any leader who is serious about security, climate action is mission critical, as climate impacts wreak havoc on every population and economy.”

Leaders and high-ranking officials from dozens of governments will gather in Munich this weekend for an annual conference on security. But the climate is likely to be low on the agenda, as countries discuss military spending and global instability.

Stiell told an audience in Istanbul on Thursday this was wrong. “Growing greenhouse gas pollution means escalating climate extremes fuelling famine, displacement and war,” he warned. “[But] climate cooperation is an antidote to the chaos and coercion of this moment, and clean energy is the obvious solution to spiralling fossil fuel costs.”

He said: “Renewables are the clearest, cheapest path to energy security and sovereignty, shielding countries and economies from shocks unleashed by wars, trade turmoil and the might-is-right politics that leave every nation poorer.”

However, an early draft of the proposed “action agenda” for Cop31, leaked to the Guardian, omits mention of the phaseout of fossil fuels discussed in depth at Cop30, to the anger of campaigners.

Cop31 is to be held in Turkey this November, but with Australia jointly in charge of proceedings, in an unusual compromise arrangement reached after a long tussle between the two governments over the presidency.

Among 14 action agenda items, the “transition away from fossil fuels” does not appear once in the draft, and many of the top priorities appear to reflect Turkish preferences rather than general concerns. For instance, at the top of the list comes a resolution for “zero waste”, calling for the rapid reduction of methane derived from waste, such as landfill sites – which ignores the fact that far more methane comes from oil and gas extraction and from livestock farming.

The second item on the list is “tourism and cultural heritage”, which is also a key concern for Turkey, which has a large tourist sector, including the resort city of Antalya where Cop31 will be held. AI also appears on the list of actions, but “climate action implementation” only makes it in as the eighth item.

Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at 350.org, said: “Fourteen priorities, around 50 sub-priorities, and not a single explicit reference to fossil fuels, the source of roughly three-quarters of global warming. [This] looks less like oversight and more like a wilful omission, especially after more than 80 countries backed a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.”

Emine Erdoğan, the wife of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish president, set up a “zero waste” initiative in 2017, and has made recycling and the “circular economy” a key issue. Sieber said: “When waste management tops the list, it makes you wonder what interests are shaping the agenda.”

The action agenda forms a key part of the annual “conference of the party” meetings, under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It contains items that do not require formal approval under the negotiation process, and thus are not subject to the effective veto wielded by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other petro-states.

At Cop30 in Brazil last November, countries failed to agree to put explicit language on the “transition away from fossil fuels” into the formal outcome of the conference, but did agree an indirect pledge on the phaseout, and an accompanying voluntary initiative to discuss the phaseout at a separate conference in Colombia this April.

Sieber called for the Cop31 action agenda draft to be rewritten. “The action agenda and Cop31 must confront the energy transition head-on, because people everywhere are asking for clean, affordable power, safer communities, and a future that is not tied to the risks and costs of fossil fuels,” he said. “It is essential that the co-presidencies highlight the phaseout of fossil fuels, which devastate local communities and exacerbate the climate crisis.”