Peter Bradshaw’s Oscars 2026 predictions: who will win, who should win, who should’ve been in the running?

. UK edition

Crew members install Oscar statue during preparations for the 98th Academy Awards
Crew members preparing for the 98th Academy Awards at the Dolby theatre in Los Angeles on Thursday. Photograph: Michael Buckner/Variety/Getty Images

Will Sinners and One Battle After Another sweep the board as expected, or are there surprises on the way? Our critic shares his predictions for the big-screen triumphs and disasters

Best picture

Will win: Sinners
Should win: The Secret Agent
Shoulda been a contender: The Mastermind

Best director

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Shoulda been a contender: Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent

Best actor

Will win: Michael B Jordan for Sinners
Should win: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
Shoulda been a contender: Josh O’Connor for The Mastermind

Best actress

Will win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
Should win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
Shoulda been a contender: Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love

Best supporting actor

Will win: Delroy Lindo for Sinners
Should win: Delroy Lindo for Sinners
Shoulda been a contender: Russell Crowe for Nuremberg

Best supporting actress

Will win: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
Should win: Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
Shoulda been a contender: Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme

Best animated feature

Will win: Zootopia 2
Should win: Little Amélie
Shoulda been a contender: Fixed

Best adapted screenplay

Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Shoulda been a contender: Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight

Best original screenplay

Will win: Sinners
Should win: It Was Just an Accident
Shoulda been a contender: Black Bag

Best documentary

Will win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Should win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Shoulda been a contender: Ocean With David Attenborough

Best international feature film

Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: The Secret Agent
Shoulda been a contender: The Ice Tower

Best production design

Will win: Hamnet
Should win: Hamnet
Shoulda been a contender: Bugonia

Best cinematography

Will win: Train Dreams
Should win: Train Dreams
Shoulda been a contender: The Secret Agent

Best makeup and hair

Will win: Frankenstein
Should win: Frankenstein
Shoulda been a contender: Blue Moon

Best costume design

Will win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners
Shoulda been a contender: The Phoenician Scheme

Best editing

Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: Sentimental Value
Shoulda been a contender: Die My Love