Close encounters: England have to crack Argentina’s ability to prevent close-range shots
Argentina’s underlying defensive process has been stronger than the outcomes so England must make potent use of their set pieces
Argentina’s defence has not always looked befitting of World Cup champions this summer. Cape Verde, Egypt and Jordan have collectively scored five goals against them, with their only clean sheets coming against Algeria and Austria.
The ease with which relative minnows have broken the backline of Lionel Scaloni’s side should offer ample encouragement to Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Argentina’s underlying defensive process has been stronger than the outcomes, though. Their average of 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes is only bettered by Spain (0.31) among all 48 teams.
As they’ve had the weakest opponents measured by average Fifa ranking of the four semi-finalists, Argentina should have conceded relatively few chances. What they have done particularly well is restrict where on the pitch those chances have occurred. Only Uruguay have allowed a higher proportion of shots faced from outside their penalty area (56%). Colombia are tied for second with Argentina on 52%, with Ecuador (45%) fifth. This has been a South American strength at this World Cup.
Ecuador share another positive statistic with Argentina: they are the only teams who have not conceded a shot within their six-yard box. Success in this area is, somewhat arbitrary, defined by a white line on the pitch. Deroy Duarte’s goal for Cape Verde against Argentina was struck from very close to the right edge of the six-yard box, while Dan Ndoye scored for Switzerland from a similar location on the opposite side in the quarter-final. The data shows why the difference matters, though. Shots from within the six-yard box have been converted at a 27.1% rate in this World Cup, almost double the success from goal attempts hit from elsewhere in the penalty area (13.7%).
England have not been the best side for attempting to score from close range. Their nine shots from inside the six-yard box is fewer than Canada (12), Ecuador (11) and Norway (10), never mind Spain (14) or Argentina (10). But they can use set pieces to test the defending champions to a greater than normal extent. Argentina have allowed just 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with Cape Verde the only side to have more than three corners against them.
England have made potent use of their set pieces, using them to fashion five close-range chances. Their three shots in Croatia’s six-yard box all came following corners, before similar opportunities occurred against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Bellingham scored twice in open play from fewer than six yards out against Mexico, too.
Argentina may be ready for the different threats they will face in Atlanta but England finding shot locations they’ve not yet allowed could prove decisive.