Iran war may increase mortgage payments for extra 1.3m households, says Bank of England

Financial policy committee predicts ‘Trumpflation’ rises, as average two-year fixed rate hits 5.84%

The US-Israel war on Iran could end up increasing monthly mortgage payments for more than one million more UK households, the Bank of England has predicted, adding that the conflict had dealt “a substantial negative supply shock” to the world economy.

Financial market jitters over the conflict in the Middle East have resulted in banks pulling about 1,500 mortgage products, with many banks raising interest rates on their remaining 7,000 home loan products in recent weeks, the Bank’s financial policy committee (FPC) said.

The increases, named “Trumpflation” after the US president, have put pressure on households preparing to sign on to new mortgage contracts, with the Bank now forecasting that about 5.2 million borrowers – or roughly 58% of borrowers across the country – could face higher mortgage payments by the end of 2028.

That compares with 3.9 million before the conflict began, adding 1.3 million borrowers to the list of households that could have their finances squeezed.

The data provider Moneyfacts reported on Wednesday that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate was now 5.84%, up from 4.83% at the start of March.

Caitlyn Eastell, a personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts, said: “It has been just over a month since the start of the Middle East conflict, and the impact on borrowers has been almost immediate as borrowing costs sharply rose.”

The FPC said that a prolonged war increased the possibility of “large, frequent and possibly overlapping shocks” that could put global financial stability at risk.

Overall, the UK’s economic outlook had deteriorated, increasing pressure on households and businesses, the FPC said. It added that a prolonged conflict could end up amplifying risks that were bubbling up before the conflict began, including pressures on government debt markets, exceptionally high valuations of AI companies, and risky loans arranged by private credit firms operating outside the regulated banking system.

“The conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a substantial negative supply shock to the global economy,” the FPC said. “The financial system has been resilient so far.”

However, the committee added: “The conflict has made the global environment materially more unpredictable and followed a period in which global risks were already elevated. This increases the possibility of large, frequent and potentially overlapping shocks and periods of intense volatility.”

The potential for multiple, simultaneous shocks, it said, could end up “amplifying their effect on financial stability and ultimately, the provision of vital financial services to UK households and businesses”.

It said that lenders, investors and other financial firms should steel themselves by assessing any potential weaknesses that could expose them to further global shocks. “This should include incorporating scenarios involving further sudden and significant price adjustments to their stress testing and liquidity preparedness, the committee said.

“Preparing for market stress events should help mitigate the risk of financial institutions’ behaviours amplifying any vulnerabilities that materialise.”

The committee noted the impact that the conflict has had on sovereign bonds, including UK gilts, which raise money for the government on international markets. It said weaker growth prospects, higher interest rates and increased pressure on spending could limit governments’ ability to respond to future shocks and worsen vulnerabilities in the debt market.

Part of that was linked to a trend whereby international hedge funds have become notable holders of government debt. “Such dynamics increase the risk of a disorderly unwind of positions causing a jump to illiquidity in core markets,” it said.

Last month, the Bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% but financial markets now expect it to raise rates twice this year.

The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes in respect to the impacts of the Iran war.

“We have to deal with the shocks that come our way. But our remit is very clear … we have to do so in a way that … causes the least damage in terms of activity in the economy and in terms of jobs,” he said in an interview with Reuters.

Regarding market forecasts for rate hikes, Bailey added: “I would still say that is a judgment markets have to make but I think they’re getting ahead of themselves.”