‘Homes may have to be abandoned’: how climate crisis has reshaped Britain’s flood risk
As rivers swell and homes are cut off, scientists say UK winter rainfall is already 20 years ahead of predictions
When flooding hit the low-lying Somerset Levels in 2014, it took two months for the waters to rise. This week it took two days, said Rebecca Horsington, chair of the Flooding on the Levels Action Group and a born-and-bred resident. A fierce barrage of storms from the Atlantic has drenched south-west England in January, saturating soils and supercharging rivers.
“It’s déjà vu,” she said. “The stress and anxiety is palpable in the community. We’ve all been here before, we know what happens and it shouldn’t. But since 2014, the weather events are becoming more and more frequent and the rain just dumps now.”
The climate crisis is here and now and this is its face in Britain, scientists told the Guardian. But the devastating impacts are accelerating faster than the work to keep communities protected, they said: torrential winter rains are arriving 20 years earlier than climate models projected. While those forced from homes engulfed by filthy water are suffering today, a darker question is looming: will some settlements have to be abandoned?
Storm Chandra, which pummelled the south-west this week, followed hot on the heels of Storms Goretti and Ingrid. New 24-hour rainfall records were set in places in Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. Setting new records is the new normal in the climate crisis.
Somerset council declared a major incident on Tuesday and across the south-west homes and businesses were flooded, communities cut off, schools closed, trains cancelled and dozens of people were rescued from stranded vehicles.
“These events are getting more frequent and more serious,” said Bryony Sadler, a hairdresser from Moorland, a village on the Levels. She was planning an evacuation of her family and animals when the Guardian spoke to her this week as the waters rose. “The rain is heavier and more intense, the winds stronger.”
Sadler is right: the science is now crystal clear that winters are getting wetter in the UK due to global heating, hitting damp regions like the south-west hardest. The reason is simple physics: warmer air holds more water vapour, meaning heavier downpours – and it is getting worse.
“There’s been massive changes over the last four or five years,” said Prof Hayley Fowler, an expert on climate change impacts at Newcastle University. “We’ve seen a rapid increase in warming and that has a huge knock-on effect on rainfall. We’re already experiencing changes in UK winter rainfall that the global and regional climate models predict for the 2040s – we’re 20 years ahead.”
The extra water falling in the UK each year was equivalent to 3m Olympic-sized swimming pools, Fowler said: “That’s a lot of extra water and means that the ground is more generally saturated and more prone to flooding. That’s what we’ve seen in the south-west this week.”
The rain is also falling in more powerful bursts, with storms now 20% more intense, according to the Met Office. There was no doubt about the culprit for the deluges, said Fowler: “It’s directly attributable to fossil fuel burning and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. So it’s going to continue [getting worse] until we stop.”
Global carbon emissions set another new record in 2025. The past three years are the hottest ever recorded. With no sign of the climate crisis ending any time soon, protecting communities from increasingly extreme weather is becoming ever more vital – but global heating is outpacing us.
Fowler is a member of the adaptation subcommittee of the Climate Change Committee, the government’s official advisers: “We are very concerned about the widening gap between the action we’re taking in the UK and the impacts we’re feeling from climate change. Flooding is actually one of the areas that we are doing better at, which is slightly horrifying given the actual impacts we’re feeling almost every week now.”
Her own view is that there is not enough investment to stop flooding: “There are a lot of plans, but there’s still a lack of delivery. Without resources going into trying to make communities resilient, there’s going to be fatalities, there’s going to be economic damage.”
For the south-west, those resources were needed today, said Dr Martina Egedušević, a flooding scientist and engineer at the University of Exeter and an independent member of the Environment Agency’s South West Regional Flood Committee. “We are still funding flood protection like climate change is a future problem, but for communities in the south-west it is already here,” she said.
On the ground, that matters. Bill Revans, the leader of Somerset council and member for the ward, including Moorland village, said: “We are now more frequently reaching this point where we need to get in extra support to be able to manage the water.” That means setting up high-volume pumps.
“But if that resource was there permanently, it would be a case of flicking a switch rather than having to wait for cranes and contractors and all the other difficult project planning things needed to get that operation up and running,” he said.
Sadler said: “We don’t get anywhere near the help we need. Help eventually comes from the government and then they forget about us until it gets bad again.”
Egedušević said: “Funding is often short term and reactive. Maintenance in particular is underfunded, and flood defences only work if they are maintained and there is a growing backlog.” She also backs more nature-based solutions to complement hard defences such as the Bridgwater tidal barrier. Planting trees, blocking upland drains and slowing the flow of water downstream all helped, she said.
The south-west has always been vulnerable to flooding. “These storms coming in off the Atlantic hit the west of the country first, so Devon and Cornwall sticking out like that into the ocean bear the brunt,” said Dr Amy Doherty, the manager of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre.
The region also has high moors that catch the rain, steep valleys where streams can swell rapidly and many communities on rivers and coastlines, where rising sea level adds to the dangers.
But the new climate-driven intensity of rain was bringing new peril: flash floods that overwhelmed drainage, said Egedušević: “So areas historically not classed as flood prone areas are now experiencing flooding, which can catch communities off guard. The drainage systems are frequently outdated and not designed for today’s rainfall extremes.”
James Wade and his family in Taunton, now in emergency accommodation, suffered flooding for the first time this week thanks to blocked drains. “We have been here for 13 years and this has never happened before. Even during the huge floods of 2014 we were dry,” he said.
Revans said: “We’ve only got so much money. As soon as you clean a drain out, it will start filling up again. I’d love to live in a world where we could maintain those drains to that high standard. But that’s not a situation that local councils are in at the moment.”
Jim Flory, the Environment Agency (EA) environment manager for Wessex, who has worked in incident management in the south-west for 20 years, said: “We’re trying to keep ourselves ahead of the curve. But it is very, very difficult because you’re fundamentally dealing with a very complex system being influenced by factors such as climate change.”
Due to an EA funding shortfall, the number of properties to be better protected from flooding by 2027 was cut in 2025 by 40%, while 500 of 2,000 new flood defence projects were abandoned. The EA said in November it was £34m short of its expected budget.
A month earlier the environmental audit committee of MPs had warned: “The scale of investment remains insufficient relative to overall flood risk. The current system, though delivering important defences, is fragmented and reactive, leaving major gaps in long-term resilience that must be urgently addressed.”
Three weeks after Storm Goretti hit Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly with 100mph winds, not everyone even has their phone lines and broadband back.
The Cornwall councillor Juliet Line said: “Resilience is lacking in the infrastructure – the vulnerability of our drainage, sewerage and communications systems is being exposed more and more with each day of rain and wind.
She added: “The council is doing the best it can with limited resources and drastically reduced funding from central government. Ultimately we need a massive injection of funding to tackle these infrastructure failings to ensure we’re able to weather these storms in the future.”
Mark Pugh, who produces audiobooks and lives just a few miles inland from Penzance, had to drive to a layby to find mobile signal to send a message to the Guardian: “Anxiety levels are high. Like many rural and coastal communities, we are seeing the real effects of climate negligence. Some of us are now discussing how, if this is going to continue happening, are we going to cope as we get older.”
But it is not just the south-west facing ever more floods as the climate crisis bites. Environment Agency data estimates 6.3m properties in England are at risk of flooding, rising to 8m by 2050, with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland also hit hard.
It’s also not just the damp British Isles. “This is all very new everywhere,” Egedušević said. “Everyone [across Europe] is failing to keep pace with climate changes. We are coming into the era when we are trying to live with these things, rather than fight them 100%.”
In Somerset, that means contemplating the previously unthinkable. “It may be that in the next 50 years, perhaps in the next 20, some homes around here will have to be abandoned,” said Mike Stanton, the chair of the Somerset Rivers Authority.
Revans reflected on the local impact: “It’s a beautiful community here, tight-knit. Everyone’s really friendly and supportive of each other. They don’t deserve this.”
Can communities like Moorland survive? “That’s an interesting question, isn’t it?” Revans said. “I would fight tooth and nail to be able to keep communities like this viable and going in the future. But ultimately, it’s a question of whether we’re prepared to spend the resource on keeping them dry every winter.”