Kemi Badenoch smiles from the stump as she heads towards oblivion | John Crace

The relaxed demeanour of the Tory leader suggests she is just relieved that things aren’t worse than they could be

It’s common knowledge that Kemi Badenoch is not an early morning person. Or an any time of morning person. Look at her in the wrong way and you’re likely to catch an earful.

So it must have taken a lot of persuading from Conservative central office to get her out and about at 9am. But needs must. All week it has been Reform setting the news agenda, with three press conferences in as many days, and the Tories have barely had a look in. You could almost have forgotten that, for the time being, at any rate, the Conservatives are still the official opposition. Their relevance diminishes by the day.

The invitation sent out on Wednesday had said access would be strictly limited and that only one journalist per outlet would be accredited. So you would have imagined the venue to be the usual small room in the bowels of a right-of-centre thinktank.

Imagine the surprise then, to find the location was outdoors on the South Bank in London. A place where literally anyone could – and did – turn up. It was almost as if they didn’t actually want anyone to come. This was more the kind of event a party puts on in the fourth week of an election campaign when it already knows it is going to lose badly.

Political reporters weren’t the only ones taken aback to find themselves gathered outdoors on a chilly late October morning. Passersby were equally surprised to find a small group of extras for CCHQ central casting waving banners that read, “If She Puts Up Tax, Give Reeves The Axe”.

“Who is that?” asked several people, as a middle-aged man moved to the centre of the 30-strong rent-a-crowd and began talking into a microphone. Poor Mel Stride. Then again, he probably gets the same reaction at family gatherings. It’s a rare talent to be that forgettable.

“Do you want me to be chancellor?” he began. Er … not even his friends want that. He had been clearly hoping that some of the staffers might sound at least vaguely enthusiastic. A token whoop at least. But nothing until one voice whispered: ‘Yes’.

The Melster couldn’t have looked more grateful. Someone, somewhere loved him. It has been a thankless task being Mel ever since he was the last cabinet minister to openly voice his support for Rishi Sunak in the dying days of the Tory government. And it’s not about to get better any time soon.

Still, credit where credit’s due. Many people would just walk away once they realised they were dying on their arse. But either The Melster can’t read the room or he is unfailingly loyal to Brand Mel. Because on he went. Labour had let down the country. Only the Tories could be trusted to get on top of government spending.

Even for Mel, this was a hell of a cheek. Because he had literally been the minister who had increased benefits spending to record levels on his watch. No wonder faith in politicians is at an all-time low. Still, if Mel can’t forgive himself, who can?

Just then, a van pulled up behind The Melster. For a moment, as no one got out, we wondered if the Lib Dems had hijacked the event with a guerilla campaign of their own. Then Stride remembered this was his cue to wind things up, as the door opened and Kemi made her appearance. “Let me introduce you to the next prime minister,” Mel beamed. Dream on. The Tories are only two points away from fifth place in the opinion polls. People may have lost faith in Labour but few are willing to forgive the Tories any time soon.

Yet despite the early start, Kemi seemed positively chipper. She smiled a lot and seemed relaxed. She may be heading for oblivion but she’s not that bothered. Maybe she’s just relieved that things aren’t even worse. Since the party conference, the complaints about her leadership have got quieter. Tories have sensed that changing your leader every year is not a good look with the punters. Besides, there isn’t anyone obviously better to replace her. So, a failure delayed is now something to celebrate.

Understandably, Badenoch began with the overnight story of Rachel Reeves’s failure to obtain a licence before letting out her Dulwich house. Given that Reeves had campaigned for such a licence to be introduced, this must qualify as right up there with one of the most brain-dead blunders. Stand by for Reeves to be included on a register of dodgy landlords. Kemi couldn’t believe her luck. If the chancellor couldn’t be trusted to run her own affairs, how could she be trusted to run the economy? She had broken the ministerial code and should resign.

This presented a problem. Because within minutes of a very short stump speech, Kemi was also demanding that Rachel resign if she were – as Reeves has virtually already broadcast herself – to break a manifesto promise by increasing income tax. Now we were in two parallel worlds at the same time. One where Rachel resigned right now and another where she resigned in four weeks’ time. For Kemi, Mel and Priti Patel, both scenarios were not just desirable but totally possible. In an infinite number of universes, there could be an infinite number of Reeveses. Any number of resignations were thinkable.

Kemi ended with a few suggestions for how the Tories might turn around the country. But no one was listening. It might have been fun to get out of Westminster for a bit, but there is almost no one in the country who reckons the Conservatives are the answer. No matter. Kemi had had a good time and was feeling so relaxed that she invited the journalists into a huddle to take their questions. What’s more, we even got some answers.

It turned out that the Tory whip Katie Lam had spoken “imprecisely” by insisting the plan was, in the interest of “cultural coherence”, to deport hundreds of thousands of people legally entitled to be here. Now that Kemi had got round to actually reading the bill that the quarter-witted Chris Philp had tabled back in May, she had decided it was dead in the water.

She would find other people to deport instead. Poor Katie. That’s the last time she trusts The Philpster, seizes on racist party policy and treats it as gospel. It’s also the last time for a good while that anyone has described her as a rising Tory star. No wonder Kemi looked so happy.