What a crucial set of election results means for Keir Starmer’s future

After Labour’s demise was overestimated, the prime minister’s potential challengers are staying quiet – for now

As the results rolled in, a trickle of voices from MPs in the governing Labour party calling for Keir Starmer to name an exit date turned into a steady stream.

The numbers in England’s crucial local election results on Friday were undoubtedly bad for Labour, as Reform UK made sweeping gains across pro-Brexit heartlands in the Midlands and north, including the historically deep red Sunderland and Hartlepool. These could even be the party’s worst losses for 50 years, with more than 1,000 councillors gone alongside the loss of control of the Welsh parliament – and similar disappointment expected in Scotland.

However, the momentum for a decisive challenge to Starmer stopped short of sweeping through the cabinet or provoking resignations – in the way that often happens when a party leader finds their time is up in the British system.

Lou Haigh, a former cabinet minister from the social democratic group in the middle of Labour’s ideological spectrum, was the biggest new voice hinting that Starmer should set out a timetable to leave office, urging him to change course before this became necessary. Several more MPs broke cover later on Friday to say Starmer should go, and the Mainstream group, which supports the biggest challenger, Andy Burnham, called for an “orderly transition” of leadership before the next election.

However, the most telling development was the absence of an outright challenge. Burnham, who is the mayor of Greater Manchester and not a sitting MP, maintained his silence. While the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and the former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner – both seen as likely candidates in a leadership race – were expected to make interventions in the hours or days ahead, their allies said neither wanted to make the first move against the prime minister.

There was also little to be heard from the cabinet, apart from the Starmer loyalists Steve Reed, Liz Kendall and John Healey, who were sent out to make the case for the prime minister staying. Senior Labour figures including Pat McFadden, Lisa Nandy and Jonathan Reynolds kept their counsel, despite Reform making headway in their seats.

Behind the scenes, Labour MPs are fuming and miserable. They also know there is no obvious mechanism for removing Starmer, and the results are not quite cataclysmic enough for him to fall on his own sword without a fight. At the moment, many Labour MPs are limiting themselves to calling for “our best players on the pitch” – code for allowing Burnham to return to parliament after a protracted controversy over his attempts to find a seat – and a change in direction to be more true to Labour values.

Starmer has been preparing for this moment for months. He was out early for a visit where he made clear he was going nowhere and was not prepared to set out a timetable for his departure.

Special advisers have been called back to Downing Street to shore up his support, a move also intended to stop them plotting with cabinet ministers in favour of a replacement. The prime minister’s aides have briefed that he is planning a speech next week, which will inevitably be seen as another reset.

Starmer has also been fortunate that polling experts appear to have overestimated the losses he faced. John Curtice and Michael Thrasher, two of the most eminent among them, revised their predictions early on Friday to more like 1,200 councillors lost; the benchmark for catastrophe for Labour had previously been set by experts at 1,800 to 2,000.

By late afternoon, Labour had lost control of at least 15 councils but held a few – seeing off a Liberal Democrat challenge in the London borough of Merton, and clinging on in Lincoln, Plymouth and Reading.

Halfway through the results, it did not seem as if a Green wave from the insurgent party to Labour’s left was going to displace them across the capital, as some MPs had feared – although Zack Polanski’s party won mayoralties in Hackney and Lewisham and had high hopes for Lambeth, Haringey, Camden and other boroughs yet to declare.

Labour’s loss of the Welsh Senedd to the progressive nationalist Plaid Cymru, and failure to beat the Scottish National party in the Holyrood parliamentary election, had already been priced in.

Starmer will not be relaxing over the weekend, though, as MPs digest the results and assess what the losses will mean for their longer-term electoral chances.

A challenge could still emerge. This could happen intentionally or almost by accident if anger within the party bubbles over and a candidate with little intention of winning – known as a stalking horse – throws their hat into the ring in an effort to trigger a contest, smoking out the real contenders. There will also be growing pressure to let Burnham back into the House of Commons.

The main potential leadership candidates spent Friday with their teams figuring out their next moves, calculating whether there was a path to nudging Starmer out of the door or if he had bought himself some more time.

Burnham, who was blocked by Starmer allies from returning to parliament, was declining requests to appear on media. He also pulled out of giving remarks about a report on children on Friday morning so as not to derail the event with questions about his potential to challenge the prime minister and his views on the local election results.

Streeting and Rayner, who have significant support among MPs and would be likely to enter any leadership contest, are both reluctant to be the first mover against Starmer – in keeping with the old political adage that the person who wields the knife does not get to wear the crown.

Both will also be looking nervously at results in their own patches that show support draining away from Labour. In Rayner’s Greater Manchester seat, Labour was defending 17 seats and lost 16 of them to Reform, handing over control of Tameside council. Redbridge is yet to declare, but independent candidates are likely to make gains on Streeting’s home turf.

With Starmer down but not yet out, and his rivals wavering, it looks as though a continuing stalemate over his future is the most likely scenario. The prime minister answered an unconvincing “yes” when asked on Friday morning whether he would lead the party into the next election, saying he wanted to see out his term. Very few of his MPs agree that this will be allowed to happen, but the route to his exit is not yet clear.