Who are the main threats to Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership?

PM is determined to fight on in No 10 but various contenders to replace him have been organising for some time

Keir Starmer has long been dogged by leadership rivals – despite only having won a huge majority two years ago. He insists there is no vacancy, and that he will fight on in No 10, seeking a second five-year term and a decade in the job. However, the various contenders to replace him have been organising for some time.

Many others may consider throwing their hats into the ring if the contest opened up – from the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, to the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, and the armed forces minister, Al Carns. But here are Starmer’s main threats:

Wes Streeting

The health secretary is widely thought to be the most ready for a leadership contest, and the one who stands to gain from a competition right now – given Andy Burnham is not an MP and Angela Rayner still has an unresolved tax problem. Streeting is considered to be on the right of the party, formerly close to Peter Mandelson, and a leading light of the Blairite Progress wing. However, he has been veering to the left for some time, on the issues of Gaza and welfare, no doubt with an eye on the Labour membership who are likely to be the ones to decide the next leader of the party.

As long ago as January, there were briefings from some supporters that he had 200 MPs lined up to back him in the parliamentary party – although some opponents say it is “complete nonsense” that half of the party are behind him.

At the time of the Mandelson scandal, some support appeared to drift away from him given his friendship with the machiavellian former peer. However, he attempted to get on the front foot by releasing text messages, including one about him fearing he was “toast” at the next election, and others where he criticised the government for having “no growth strategy”.

Once close to No 10 and the former adviser Morgan McSweeney, Streeting appeared to drift away from Starmer as early as last autumn, as speculation about his own leadership ambitions began to heat up. He faces substantial hurdles to becoming the leader, with a soft-left choice potentially more favoured by the membership and some “Stop Wes” MPs determined to do everything possible to prevent his candidacy.

Health secretary

Angela Rayner

The former deputy leader has not confirmed she would definitely run. However, her allies say she is getting prepared, even though she is not dead set on becoming the candidate of the soft left – the middle-ground position between Labour’s right and the harder left.

Having stepped down over an HMRC inquiry about her tax affairs, Rayner had hoped to have put the affair behind her by now. The lack of conclusion makes it difficult but not impossible for her to throw her hat into the ring, and she sent out a lengthy statement with her prescription for turning the government around on Sunday – urging Labour to return to governing for the working class. She also made clear that she believes it was a mistake for Starmer to block Burnham from returning to parliament as an MP.

Rayner’s chances of becoming leader are boosted by Burnham’s continued exclusion from parliament, but if there were to be a quick contest then she could benefit from his backing – and could offer to allow him to return in a top job. Rayner also has an impressive record in government to show Labour members who could decide any contest, from bringing in the employment rights bill to pushing for more housebuilding.

Backbench MP and former deputy leader

Andy Burnham

Burnham was obviously jostling for the leadership as early as autumn, when he set out criticisms of the government before the Labour conference and confirmed he would seek to stand against Starmer if there were to be a contest. He subsequently pushed to return as a candidate in the Gorton and Denton byelection before being blocked by Labour’s national executive, which was loyal to Starmer.

After that, the Greater Manchester mayor became quieter – but his ambitions have not gone away and he has built up substantial support on the soft left in parliament, as well as some centrists.

Many of his backers have been calling on Starmer to name a date for his resignation in the last few days. However, this tactic appears to have massively backfired by creating the momentum for supporters of Streeting and other sitting MPs to push for a quicker contest that would exclude him. The alternative plan now is for Burnham backers to urge Starmer to set out an “orderly transition” rather than allow a contest that favours Streeting and other sitting MPs.

A former health secretary, Burnham is also a proponent of Manchesterism – fighting for place-based growth – and for proportional representation. He has not yet commented on the local election results and pulled out of a speech on Friday morning so as not to overshadow the event. However, he is a rare potential replacement for Starmer in being both popular with party members and the country at large. Seen as working class, authentic and the “king of the north”, Burnham would be seen by many as the strongest contender if he were allowed to run.

Mayor of Greater Manchester

Ed Miliband

“I can see how there is a path for Ed,” says one Labour figure from another camp. Miliband has played the long game. He has not been caught up in scandals, and most MPs thought he was content to pitch himself as a future chancellor or kingmaker of the soft left. However, if a contest to replace Starmer takes place before Burnham has returned, there is a strong chance that MPs could turn to him rather than Rayner as their candidate.

He has not confirmed he would run in any competition but is reported to have asked Starmer last week to name a timetable for his exit – a plan that the prime minister firmly rejects. Miliband’s biggest weakness, though, is that he has already been rejected once by the electorate against David Cameron in 2015. While one of the most popular members of the cabinet with Labour members, there is nervousness among MPs about how he would fare in an electoral contest with Nigel Farage.

Secretary of state for energy security and net zero

Catherine West

Few outside Westminster have heard of West. The former Foreign Office minister’s decision to say she would challenge Starmer for the leadership came out of the blue over the weekend. She is a very unlikely candidate to actually win any contest. But she told the New Statesman: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate.”

Former parliamentary under-secretary of state at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office