Weakened Leicester show why away sides need Champions Cup miracles

In three years of trying, visitors have won two of the 24 last-16 ties, so it is no surprise players needing post-Six Nations breaks skip trips

The odds on multiple away wins in this weekend’s Champions Cup last 16 are not terribly good. Since the single-leg concept was born three years ago there have been 24 matches, with the hosts losing only two. If that strike rate alters significantly this time it will certainly confound the bookmakers.

Bordeaux Bègles, the defending champions, have even been quoted at 1-100 to beat Leicester on Sunday, a remarkable price for a two-horse race. It might be slightly different if the Tigers were at full strength but, as the bookies are keenly aware, that is very much not the case with, among others, Ollie Chessum, Joe Heyes and Nicky Smith all non-runners.

There is something seriously awry when a proud club such as Leicester find themselves approaching what should be a pivotal game with a weakened team. Their head coach, Geoff Parling, is required to give his key international forward trio a mandatory post-Six Nations break at some juncture and, accordingly, has chosen to prioritise a top-four domestic finish.

At this point a year ago it was a similar story: Saracens rested their star men and duly shipped 72 points at Toulon. Sarries, Harlequins, Leicester and Sale conceded 215 points between them and bowed out with barely a whimper. The ability to fight on two fronts has become an English rarity, with the notable exception of Bath, whose squad depth continues to grow.

Is there a solution? Not a straightforward one, certainly. The current structure is technically set until 2030, albeit with a twist in 2028. In that season the eight Champions Cup quarter-finalists will pivot to face seven teams from Super Rugby Pacific and one from Japan, the idea being to anoint a world club champion every four years instead of retaining the traditional format.

Even then, it is reasonable to ask if all the world’s top players will be available off the back of a demanding year, culminating in the 2027 World Cup in Australia and the 2028 Six Nations. Parling enjoyed the simplicity of the old Heineken Cup pool format but since then the calendar has grown ever more packed and the sport more intense. “I just don’t know how you fit everything in,” said the former England forward this week. “That’s for the powers that be, but you’ve got to have some form of rest somewhere. The game is very physical now. We all want the best versus the best, but it is what it is.”

The challenge is magnified by the need to win big knockout ties on consecutive weekends to progress to the last four. If Northampton can see off Castres under the Friday night lights at Franklin’s Gardens, for example, their prize will be a trip to a fully stacked Bath next week, unless Saracens produce a startling turnaround from their recent 62-15 Prem drubbing at the Rec.

Likewise Harlequins, if they beat Sale at the Stoop on Saturday, would be rewarded with another outing to Dublin, where they went down 45-28 to Leinster with a weakened team in the pool stages and lost 62-0 last April.

A penny for Bristol’s thoughts, too, if they somehow pull off a miracle in Toulouse on Saturday only to set up a likely last-eight visit to Bordeaux.

Hopefully there will be a joker lurking somewhere in the pack. The South African provinces have been gathering momentum lately and, in theory, the Stormers and the Bulls are better placed to silence the home supporters in Glasgow and Toulon respectively than they would have been in January. Not that John Dobson, the estimable Stormers’ head coach, is getting ahead of himself. “What will it take us to win?” he asked wryly this week. “Venus to align with Uranus and Saturn.”

Glasgow have certainly become fiendishly hard to beat at Scotstoun and recent history is firmly stacked against every away side. Let’s just say that if any of Northampton, Bath, Toulon, Glasgow, Toulouse, Quins, Bordeaux and Leinster fail to reach the last eight then their conquerors will be bucking the trend.