Scotland sense chance against France to end cycle of brilliance and despair | Michael Aylwin

Murrayfield as underdogs is a scenario Scotland like, and a third successive win would set up a perfect Six Nations finale

The mischievous will have eyes on Rome on Saturday in case of a historic win but the game of the weekend is in Edinburgh. Second versus first, Scotland versus France, entertainers versus entertainers. The title on the line. We could even have a champion by the end of it.

If France win with a bonus point, that is it. The 2026 Six Nations will be theirs with a round to spare. One feels there will be tries in this game, so the prospect is real. Which would reduce the championship’s beloved set piece of Super Saturday to an exercise in ordering the also-rans and seeing if France can move ahead of Wales as the Six Nations’ most prolific purveyor of grand slams, with a fifth.

For now though we can relish an old-fashioned match of significance in the race to the title. Our two contenders have adopted routes to this point of varying fortunes. France have been immaculate; Scotland have offered the usual diet of brilliance and despair.

After the mud-fest in Rome of round one, they have actually won consecutive matches. Following their win in Cardiff last time out, the BBC pulled up a stat in Rugby Special that listed the only other two times Scotland had followed up a home win with an away win in the same championship. But the picture is even bleaker than that.

The AI researcher the Beeb presumably used failed to qualify the first instance, in 2020, with the not-insignificant detail that the away win against Wales in round five with which they followed up their home win against France in round four was separated from its predecessor by nearly eight months. And it was recorded in an empty Parc y Scarlets in a monsoon, because of Covid. What’s more the other instance was the following year again in an empty stadium, this time in Paris, again in outlandish circumstances, this time a postponed match, again because of Covid.

What we can say is that Scotland’s win against Wales a fortnight ago, however unconvincing, was the first time in the Six Nations they have followed up a euphoric, coruscating home victory, like the one over England in round two, with an away one the next week. In front of people. Does this signal a new dynamic?

Wales, even in Cardiff, are not a hard team to beat these days. We could see all of the old ghosts swarming round Scottish heads as it looked as if they were going to blow it again. But they satisfied that old chestnut about the good teams finding a way to win even on a bad day.

Now they are back where they like to be: at home with no expectation. The bookies have given them a double-digit head start and you cannot hear a less‑than-effusive word said against France anywhere. So let’s introduce a few now.

The darlings of this Six Nations to date have not had a proper test. It was only in November that they were being utterly dismantled by the best team in the world, South Africa, who played most of the match down to 14. Then came round one. Who knows who that team in green were who turned up in Paris on a Thursday night but they were not the one who turned up at Twickenham for round three. Since that gentle stroll, France have prevailed with ease in Cardiff and at home to Italy.

Scotland are not South Africa but we can be confident they won’t stand on ceremony come 10 past two on Saturday. And boy they can play when they want to. They make five changes to the side who scraped home against Wales, the most notable being the shifting of Zander Fagerson to the bench (they don’t like to call it demotion these days) and the ejection altogether of Duhan van der Merwe from the squad after one game back in. Jack Dempsey also returns to lend punch from the base of the scrum.

France make five changes too, restoring the team who beat Ireland in round one. Having showcased over the past two rounds the latest pair of talented youngsters in midfield, they bring back the Bordeaux pairing of Yoram Moefana and Nicolas Depoortère, with France’s attack coach, Patrick Arlettaz, likening his midfield options to mushrooms. “There was a period when we had a shortage there. Now it’s like mushrooms. Sometimes you can’t find one. The next day they’re everywhere – even under your bed.”

Magic mushrooms indeed. France have been the stars of this championship to date. This ought to be their biggest test. Should Scotland, whisper it, actually win, Super Saturday could suddenly become a parade of matches of significance. A Scotland win would be the first time they have secured three in a row in the Six Nations, other than that run of wins in 2020 that do not really count. Make it a fourth consecutive win in Dublin the week after … stop it. That we have just this match to look forward to should be enough.