‘It was just … meh’: the voters who feel ‘tinkering’ budget let them down

Research group More in Common spoke to former ‘blue wall’ constituents unimpressed by ‘chaotic’ U-turns

“It’s all sort of stacked against you … The people that are working hard and earning a decent wage, trying to get childcare costs under control … you sort of question why you’re doing what you’re doing,” was how Hayley, an assistant headteacher in our focus group in Aldershot, described the economy, shortly after the budget was announced.

Hayley’s not alone: a record 57% of Britons now say they are unsure that the cost of living crisis will ever end. But what was so revealing about Wednesday’s focus group was that they were all in what we would normally see as relatively high-paid jobs, they owned their own homes – not the type of voter you’d normally think of as struggling. As Martin, a product manager in the automotive industry, put it: “On paper, we should be feeling really well off.”

Instead, they described a sense that a good wage and savings no longer guarantee financial security. Annette, an executive assistant, said she felt the “goalposts seem to move all the time”, that “doing the right thing, being sensible” was not enough. Many described a feeling that retirement felt far away, while some felt trapped in a “double squeeze”, where “we’re supporting our adult parents, while our kids are 30 and still living at home”.

Aldershot is an archetypal “blue wall” seat and, until fairly recently, a Tory stronghold. Labour’s victory in last year’s election broke the constituency’s streak of more than a century of Conservative MPs.

The voters we spoke to had been part of that switch. They supported Labour in the general election, partly because they desperately felt the country needed the change Keir Starmer was promising. Yet 18 months on, they felt let down.

“I think actually the thing that makes me most angry about this Labour government is that I was really hopeful for them,” said Rebecca, a lecturer. Rob, a carpenter, told us: “I’ve lost faith in the government in the last six months if I’m honest. I think everything they do is wrong.”

Their views on the budget were most defined by the briefings and briefing U-turns that preceded it. Pre-budget kite-flying does not normally cut through in focus groups, yet among this group (and others More in Common has run over the past few weeks) the sheer volume of speculative briefing had tainted their perceptions of Reeves’s announcements even before the chancellor stood up.

Rebecca summed up the impact of those briefings: “For a party that was kind of campaigning on ending the chaos, I would say the lead-up to the budget felt quite chaotic … it’s just like a comedy of errors constantly.”

The extent of this speculation meant that many agreed with Martin, who called the budget itself a “damp squib”. “It wasn’t a bad budget because they haven’t made things significantly worse,” he said. “But it wasn’t a good one. It was just … meh.”

Some, however, were more critical. Annette felt that cutting the tax-free cash ISA allowance penalised those who were working hard and saving – another example of the “goalposts moving”. Sarah felt the same way about the tax on electric vehicles, likening it to the reversal of the government’s approach to taxing diesel cars.

Their response to the government’s decision to lift the two-child limit on benefits was mixed; the group were worried about child poverty, but also felt the government needed to find ways to tackle the ballooning welfare bill.

For some, the decision to freeze income tax bands had left a bitter taste. Hayley called it “sneaky” and “a little bit underhanded”. Many saw it as a breach of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on working people – though most also agreed it was better than breaking the core pledge not to raise income tax rates.

While there was some sympathy at the task the chancellor faced (“over the years there’s been some horrific budgets that have caused us long-term issues”, said Sarah, “so I understand a little bit why we’re having to be cautious”), there was also real impatience, a feeling that the government was “tinkering around the edges” and failing to get a grip on the cost of living.

“It’s all about playing safe, not rocking the boat, just doing the bare minimum rather than really tackling some of the really big issues,” said Annette.

Traditionally, you’d have expected voters like the ones we spoke with to be satisfied, settled supporters of the status quo. Yet many of them feel frustrated with the government’s pace of change, believe that the system no longer works for them and worry that a comfortable, stable life is increasingly out of reach.

The budget itself may have done no further harm with this group of voters, who make up a core part of Labour’s new coalition, but it certainly didn’t help to rebuild their shattered expectations either.

The lasting impact may instead be on their perceptions of government competence. The unprecedented level of briefing and counter-briefing in the run-up to the budget reinforces a view that, despite the promise of a “politics that treads more lightly”, this government is ultimately no less chaotic than the last.

Luke Tryl is the UK director of the research group More in Common