60% of Welsh voters unaware of how new system will work in May elections

Voters remain unsure about which policy decisions sit with Cardiff Bay and which with Westminster

Almost 60% of Welsh voters are unaware of how the new system will work in May’s Senedd elections and there is confusion over devolution powers, a report has found.

Polling research released on Wednesday by Cardiff University and YouGov suggested that 26 years since devolution began, many voters remain unsure about which policy decisions sit with Cardiff Bay, and which with Westminster.

One-third of respondents still did not know that health and education are devolved to the Welsh government, with only 1% correctly identifying who has responsibility for eight key policy areas.

Nearly 70% of people either answered incorrectly or did not know that policing in Wales, unlike Scotland, is under UK government control, and 29% were incorrect or did not know that immigration policy is decided by Westminster.

Only 7% of people knew that May’s crucial vote will be held under a new closed list system, and 58% did not know which voting system will be used, according to the representative poll of 1,544 people, conducted in February.

Prof Stephen Cushion, the lead researcher, said the results raised “urgent questions” about public access to political information in the run-up to the election.

“During an election period, these gaps matter for democratic accountability because people need to make a well-informed decision about who will be running Wales over the next few years,” he said.

Some of the confusion can be attributed to media consumption, he said. UK-wide media outlets remain the primary news source for 46% of respondents, compared with 10% who use mainly Wales-focused and Wales-produced news.

Almost half of respondents said UK‑wide outlets did a bad job of reporting on Wales, and the biggest reason given, at 19%, was that it was too focused on London and south-east England.

Respondents struggled to place news stories in the correct constitutional context, for example, misreading a BBC website story about an England‑only junior doctors’ strike as UK‑wide, researchers found.

“UK‑focused news reporting can blur constitutional lines for audiences in Wales. Clearer labelling would help voters match party promises to the right tier of government this May,” Cushion said.

Recognition of Welsh political figures was uneven. The first minister, Labour’s Eluned Morgan, was recognised by 62% of participants, while her likely successor, Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth, was known by 47%.

Dan Thomas, who was appointed as Reform’s leader in Wales last month, was correctly identified by 10% of respondents, while the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, was almost universally recognised at 94%.

Thomas is likely to become opposition leader in the Senedd and could even be first minister after May’s elections, in which polls consistently suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform will push incumbent Welsh Labour into third place, ending more than 100 years of Labour hegemony.